OK, team release night and three decisions to make:
1) Should I trade tonight? But don’t I always trade on a Thursday? Well, yes, but I’m still kind of spooked by the ‘Jimmy Bartel appendicitis’ incident from last year. What happened was that I used my last trade to bring in Bartel on the Thursday night and then the next day it was revealed that he had been taken to hospital, most likely at the exact moment I put him in my team. I still won the Grand Final (regrettably no prize money was involved), but the result was probably somewhat closer than it would have been had I used my trade elsewhere. This year? Well, in most cases it won’t matter – say I trade Pavlich for a gun forward and then a player gets injured. In that case, I would have to use one of my emergencies. But if I wait until tomorrow and a player gets injured, I still have to use one of my emergencies (because Pavlich is out this week) – it’s just a matter then of whether I trade Pavlich or the other injured star. Follow so far? Now the only way it’s going to matter if one of my ruckmen is injured, since I can’t cover them if I use up my final trade. If it’s Cox, no big deal, because the Ginger Ninjas have him too. But if it’s Sandilands - I’m screwed.
(Incidentally, with Pavlich’s departure there will be only nine survivors from my initial starting 22: Martin Mattner, Nathan Bock, Jason Gram, Daniel Bradshaw, Nick Dal Santo, Nick Stevens, Brent Stanton, Dean Cox, and Brett Deledio. And I’d trade at least half those guys if I could.)
2) Who to trade for? I was leaning towards Paul Chapman, but Matthew Richardson is awfully tempting, particularly given that he is playing the Demons. That would also cancel out Richardson on my opponent’s team, leaving a forward line battle of Riewoldt, Deledio and Waite v Murphy, Akermanis and Rioli. Problem is Richo’s recent form hasn’t been great, while Chapman scored 130 points last week. But Chapman has been injured a bit recently. Then again, so has Richo. Hmm…
3) Who to make captain? Gary Ablett has been my go-to guy for most of the year, but he’s only had one stellar game since his return from injury. Nick Riewoldt has been in great form recently, but he doesn’t tend to have games where he goes supernova. Hmm again…
Verdict: I think I will break with tradition and wait until tomorrow afternoon to use my final trade; that will give me time to consider whether to bring in Chapman or Richo and I can see whether or not Sandilands survives the night. But I’m leaning towards Pavlich out, Richo in, Gary Ablett captain.
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Diary Of An AFL SuperCoach Obsessive - Grand Final Week: Day 3
Matthew Pavlich is out for the season, according to the Herald-Sun injury list. Even though he is on my team, this actually improves my chances. Assuming the Ginger Ninjas do not have a trade left they will have to resort to using their current emergency Cyril Rioli (remember him?), while I can swap Pavlich for Paul Chapman and gain an extra 30 point advantage. The potential fly in the ointment is if I lose another of my players this week, in which case I’ll have to resort to my emergency Lachlan Hansen, and possibly lose my advantage on the forward line. If that happens, I may well rue the indulgence of my trade of Simmonds for Sandilands last week.
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Diary of an AFL SuperCoach Obsessive - Grand Final Week: Day 2
Know thy enemy: the team that my Phantom Lunches is facing off against in the Big One this weekend is the Ginger Ninjas. They are an unusual opponent, although not a unique one, as I’ll get to later. The team is nominally coached by Claire, who sits in the chair diagonally across from me at work. But Claire is not a football obsessive, so she has been helped along the way by David, who sits diagonally over the partition from me. David came to help Claire because the person who set up the league invited too many people, so that David missed out on a spot. Apparently some deal was worked out about splitting the prize money if, God forbid, the Ginger Ninjas won the league. (Can I somehow use this arrangement to sow distrust among their ranks? Hmm, it may possibly be a little late for that…)
The upshot of all of this is that my opponent is not who it appears to be. For example, I probably could get the information out of Claire whether or not her team has a trade left. But David is a more inscrutable opponent: when I quizzed him on the subject (perhaps not the most covert approach), he answered that maybe he had a trade left, maybe he didn’t. (For what it’s worth, I think he’s bluffing – I reckon he used his last trade to try and win last week.) So far the scoreline is 1-1, with them winning the home-and-away season match-up, and me winning the first final.
So why is this not a unique opponent? Well, as it turns out the team that topped our league at the end of the home-and-away season was also a double act – the wife sits at the desk across from me, and the husband manages the team across the phone. That team was my main concern until the Ginger Ninjas helpfully put them out last week. It remains to be seen whether they actually did me a favour or not.
The upshot of all of this is that my opponent is not who it appears to be. For example, I probably could get the information out of Claire whether or not her team has a trade left. But David is a more inscrutable opponent: when I quizzed him on the subject (perhaps not the most covert approach), he answered that maybe he had a trade left, maybe he didn’t. (For what it’s worth, I think he’s bluffing – I reckon he used his last trade to try and win last week.) So far the scoreline is 1-1, with them winning the home-and-away season match-up, and me winning the first final.
So why is this not a unique opponent? Well, as it turns out the team that topped our league at the end of the home-and-away season was also a double act – the wife sits at the desk across from me, and the husband manages the team across the phone. That team was my main concern until the Ginger Ninjas helpfully put them out last week. It remains to be seen whether they actually did me a favour or not.
Monday, August 25, 2008
Diary Of An AFL SuperCoach Obsessive - Grand Final Week: Day 1
I won my preliminary final quite easily (2195-1932), although perhaps not as easily as I should have given that the other team was missing three players. Sandilands got belted around the ground by Troy Simmonds on the weekend, which was great from the point of view that it helped Richmond win, but not so great for my SuperCoach team (and my mental health). Speaking of Richmond, with life, the universe, and everything conspiring towards the Tigers just missing the finals again (I’m not mentioning their position on the ladder), my whole focus for this week is going to be on getting my SuperCoach team over the line. So let’s start with the team-by-team comparisons:
Me:
Ablett 133.71
Cox 111.71
Riewoldt 111.25
Harvey 111.05
Pavlich 110.53
Judd 109.6
Franklin 108
O'Keefe 103.76
Brown 102.15
Dal Santo 101.05
Waite 100.8
Deledio 100.29
Mattner 97.57
Milburn 95.89
Stevens 95.33
Sandilands 95.24
Stanton 93.14
Bradshaw 92.58
Bock 91.95
McLeod 88.16
Johncock 87.42
Gram 86.76
Total 2227.94
Them:
Ablett 133.71
Cox 111.71
Pavlich 110.53
Cooney 109.1
Franklin 108
Power 106.14
O'Keefe 103.76
Thompson 103.52
Brown 102.15
Richardson 101.42
Pratt 97.84
Mattner 97.57
Montagna 96.86
Milburn 95.89
Stevens 95.33
Bradshaw 92.58
Bock 91.95
Murphy 91.8
Gram 86.76
Akermanis 85.24
Birchall 84.71
Simmonds 74.14
Total 2180.71
I’m ahead, but it’s a little too close for comfort. Let’s try that again with the common players taken out:
Me:
Riewoldt 111.25
Harvey 111.05
Judd 109.6
Dal Santo 101.05
Waite 100.8
Deledio 100.29
Sandilands 95.24
Stanton 93.14
McLeod 88.16
Johncock 87.42
Them:
Cooney 109.1
Power 106.14
Thompson 103.52
Richardson 101.42
Pratt 97.84
Montagna 96.86
Murphy 91.8
Akermanis 85.24
Birchall 84.71
Simmonds 74.14
So my main strengths are my forward line (Riewoldt, Deledio and Waite v Richardson, Murphy and Akermanis), and supposedly my ruck division, although last week’s results suggest otherwise. My backline is a little weaker (although it could be argued that McLeod, when in form, is at least on a par with Daniel Pratt), and the midfields are about even.
So who to trade? Graham Johncock has fallen so far in value that he is untradeable. McLeod and Gram are possibilities, although I’ll probably keep McLeod given his recent form. There’s a temptation to trade my weakest midfielder, Mr Brent Stanton, for Adam Cooney, therefore nullifying Cooney’s score. But Stanton has actually been in better form lately, and I don’t know if I could take the mental torture if he scored 150 next week.
In fact, my best hope for this weekend may be to hope that Matthew Pavlich’s injury puts him out for another week. I can trade him out; I’m not sure that my opponent could.
Me:
Ablett 133.71
Cox 111.71
Riewoldt 111.25
Harvey 111.05
Pavlich 110.53
Judd 109.6
Franklin 108
O'Keefe 103.76
Brown 102.15
Dal Santo 101.05
Waite 100.8
Deledio 100.29
Mattner 97.57
Milburn 95.89
Stevens 95.33
Sandilands 95.24
Stanton 93.14
Bradshaw 92.58
Bock 91.95
McLeod 88.16
Johncock 87.42
Gram 86.76
Total 2227.94
Them:
Ablett 133.71
Cox 111.71
Pavlich 110.53
Cooney 109.1
Franklin 108
Power 106.14
O'Keefe 103.76
Thompson 103.52
Brown 102.15
Richardson 101.42
Pratt 97.84
Mattner 97.57
Montagna 96.86
Milburn 95.89
Stevens 95.33
Bradshaw 92.58
Bock 91.95
Murphy 91.8
Gram 86.76
Akermanis 85.24
Birchall 84.71
Simmonds 74.14
Total 2180.71
I’m ahead, but it’s a little too close for comfort. Let’s try that again with the common players taken out:
Me:
Riewoldt 111.25
Harvey 111.05
Judd 109.6
Dal Santo 101.05
Waite 100.8
Deledio 100.29
Sandilands 95.24
Stanton 93.14
McLeod 88.16
Johncock 87.42
Them:
Cooney 109.1
Power 106.14
Thompson 103.52
Richardson 101.42
Pratt 97.84
Montagna 96.86
Murphy 91.8
Akermanis 85.24
Birchall 84.71
Simmonds 74.14
So my main strengths are my forward line (Riewoldt, Deledio and Waite v Richardson, Murphy and Akermanis), and supposedly my ruck division, although last week’s results suggest otherwise. My backline is a little weaker (although it could be argued that McLeod, when in form, is at least on a par with Daniel Pratt), and the midfields are about even.
So who to trade? Graham Johncock has fallen so far in value that he is untradeable. McLeod and Gram are possibilities, although I’ll probably keep McLeod given his recent form. There’s a temptation to trade my weakest midfielder, Mr Brent Stanton, for Adam Cooney, therefore nullifying Cooney’s score. But Stanton has actually been in better form lately, and I don’t know if I could take the mental torture if he scored 150 next week.
In fact, my best hope for this weekend may be to hope that Matthew Pavlich’s injury puts him out for another week. I can trade him out; I’m not sure that my opponent could.
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Diary of an AFL SuperCoach Obsessive - Week 21
Monday:
Preliminary final week, and since it all could end this weekend it’s time to put in that extra bit of effort. First up: let’s check whether my team would actually be expected to win this week’s match-up. Looking at the average scores of my line-up relative to those of my opponent’s, the answer is: yes I would, and quite easily too.
Me:
Ablett 136.88
Harvey 112.65
Cox 112.4
Riewoldt 111.95
Pavlich 110.53
Franklin 109.3
Judd 108.05
O'Keefe 104.25
Brown 101.42
Dal Santo 101.37
Waite 100.63
Deledio 100.35
Milburn 98.94
Mattner 96.75
Stevens 95.1
Bradshaw 91.5
Bock 91.35
Stanton 90.9
Johncock 88
McLeod 86.22
Gram 85.75
Simmonds 72.1
Total 2206.39
Them:
Ablett 136.88
Cox 112.4
Pavlich 110.53
Franklin 109.3
Judd 108.05
Black 104.58
Brown 101.42
Hayes 101.11
Milburn 98.94
Mattner 96.75
Murphy 95.85
Murphy 92.05
Bock 91.35
Ladson 89.55
Medhurst 88.4
McLeod 86.22
Johnson 83.15
Griffen 80.11
Lade 75
Ellis 72.7
Selwood 53.86
Tippett 51.35
Total 2039.55
Of course, because we live in a world of randomness, it’s always good to improve your chances where you can, particularly if you have two trades left in the bank. The obvious player to drop is Troy Simmonds - I could trade him for Aaron Sandilands, who is averaging about 25 points a game more. We’ll see what happens when the teams are named, but that’s the way I’m leaning.
Wednesday:
Thought I saw the girl again that I saw the morning I was muttering the words ‘Graham Johncock’ over and over to myself… it’s fortunate that I did not see her yesterday when I was repeating my potential ruck division: ‘Cox, Sandilands, Cox, Sandilands…,’
Thursday:
And now my ruck division is ‘Cox, Sandilands’. I was a bit worried about the fact that Simmonds and Sandilands had scored about the same over the past six weeks, but I’m still justifying the trade on the grounds that Sandilands has had a lower amount of ‘shockers’ this year. Consistency is my friend at this stage of the season.
(I did ponder that I could get rid of Brent Stanton for Adam Cooney, but it’s hard to justify dropping a player who has just scored 119 points. Besides, there’s always next week.
Er, assuming there is a next week…)
Preliminary final week, and since it all could end this weekend it’s time to put in that extra bit of effort. First up: let’s check whether my team would actually be expected to win this week’s match-up. Looking at the average scores of my line-up relative to those of my opponent’s, the answer is: yes I would, and quite easily too.
Me:
Ablett 136.88
Harvey 112.65
Cox 112.4
Riewoldt 111.95
Pavlich 110.53
Franklin 109.3
Judd 108.05
O'Keefe 104.25
Brown 101.42
Dal Santo 101.37
Waite 100.63
Deledio 100.35
Milburn 98.94
Mattner 96.75
Stevens 95.1
Bradshaw 91.5
Bock 91.35
Stanton 90.9
Johncock 88
McLeod 86.22
Gram 85.75
Simmonds 72.1
Total 2206.39
Them:
Ablett 136.88
Cox 112.4
Pavlich 110.53
Franklin 109.3
Judd 108.05
Black 104.58
Brown 101.42
Hayes 101.11
Milburn 98.94
Mattner 96.75
Murphy 95.85
Murphy 92.05
Bock 91.35
Ladson 89.55
Medhurst 88.4
McLeod 86.22
Johnson 83.15
Griffen 80.11
Lade 75
Ellis 72.7
Selwood 53.86
Tippett 51.35
Total 2039.55
Of course, because we live in a world of randomness, it’s always good to improve your chances where you can, particularly if you have two trades left in the bank. The obvious player to drop is Troy Simmonds - I could trade him for Aaron Sandilands, who is averaging about 25 points a game more. We’ll see what happens when the teams are named, but that’s the way I’m leaning.
Wednesday:
Thought I saw the girl again that I saw the morning I was muttering the words ‘Graham Johncock’ over and over to myself… it’s fortunate that I did not see her yesterday when I was repeating my potential ruck division: ‘Cox, Sandilands, Cox, Sandilands…,’
Thursday:
And now my ruck division is ‘Cox, Sandilands’. I was a bit worried about the fact that Simmonds and Sandilands had scored about the same over the past six weeks, but I’m still justifying the trade on the grounds that Sandilands has had a lower amount of ‘shockers’ this year. Consistency is my friend at this stage of the season.
(I did ponder that I could get rid of Brent Stanton for Adam Cooney, but it’s hard to justify dropping a player who has just scored 119 points. Besides, there’s always next week.
Er, assuming there is a next week…)
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
The Finger Points Outwards - No.13
The effect of movie critics on box-office receipts.
How to win at Rock, Paper, Scissors.
Who is really winning the Olympics?
Price of gas rises to four expletives per gallon.
The best strategy for dealing with merging traffic.
A pretty clever installment of Indexed.
And another one.
And another.
And a pretty clever Anti-Caption Contest.
How to win at Rock, Paper, Scissors.
Who is really winning the Olympics?
Price of gas rises to four expletives per gallon.
The best strategy for dealing with merging traffic.
A pretty clever installment of Indexed.
And another one.
And another.
And a pretty clever Anti-Caption Contest.
Sunday, August 10, 2008
Diary Of An AFL SuperCoach Obsessive - Week 20
Sunday:
I won, I'm into the preliminary final in two weeks time, so I'm shutting up shop for the week!
I won, I'm into the preliminary final in two weeks time, so I'm shutting up shop for the week!
Thursday, August 7, 2008
Diary Of An AFL SuperCoach Obsessive - Week 19
Tuesday:
I, like many other SuperCoaches throughout Australia this week, want to hit Heath Shaw with a crowbar. For those who don’t know, Shaw was caught driving while over the legal alcohol limit last Sunday night. He copped a huge fine, but appeared to escape suspension from the Magpies, since they need all the help they can get to make the finals. All good, at least from a SuperCoach point of view, until it emerges that he lied about the other passenger in his car, who was teammate Alan Didak. Now the pressure to suspend both Shaw and Didak becomes even more intense (although since Didak is not on my team I wouldn’t mind if the Collingwood hierarchy take him out the back of Victoria Park and shoot him).
Damn Shaw and damn him for putting me in this morally compromising position! He broke the law, what he did was dangerous, and he should be dumped from the team. But goddamn it, I need him to play this week, particularly with Darren Milburn being suspended for four matches, and Graham Johncock last spotted somewhere in the oil fields of Alaska. Honestly, I hope they play him. Goddamn…
Wednesday:
Well, now we know… Heath Shaw out for the rest of the season. The good news though is Darren Milburn has had his suspension reduced to one week, although this also makes things decidedly tricky. Do I keep Milburn or go for broke and try and get the week’s rest in the finals? I think keep him, and here’s why: if I’m aiming to win my league then, because of the way the finals system works, I have to win the last two matches of the finals regardless of whether I win or lose this week. That being the case, it would be better to have Milburn for those last two weeks then not to have him. Not only is he one of the better defenders going around, I can use the trade elsewhere.
So how to use the trades? Well, one will have to be used to ditch Heath Shaw. Unfortunately, Shaw’s value has gone down recently so to get a top defender will probably eat up some cash. I’m also thinking if I want to take out some insurance against Milburn’s absence, I can upgrade Cyril Rioli for a star forward. I was going to do this at some point anyway, so why not this week? That will give me an all-star line-up when Milburn returns, and still leave me two trades to cover injuries.
I’m liking this plan, but we’ll have to see what the teams are tomorrow night.
Thursday:
All going to plan – Johncock’s back, Ablett’s back… I traded Heath Shaw for another underperforming star, Andrew McLeod, and dumped Cyril Rioli for the consistent Jarrad Waite. Once Milburn returns, my team should be unstoppable! The other finalists are not going to know what hit them! That is, assuming I win the first final this weekend…
I, like many other SuperCoaches throughout Australia this week, want to hit Heath Shaw with a crowbar. For those who don’t know, Shaw was caught driving while over the legal alcohol limit last Sunday night. He copped a huge fine, but appeared to escape suspension from the Magpies, since they need all the help they can get to make the finals. All good, at least from a SuperCoach point of view, until it emerges that he lied about the other passenger in his car, who was teammate Alan Didak. Now the pressure to suspend both Shaw and Didak becomes even more intense (although since Didak is not on my team I wouldn’t mind if the Collingwood hierarchy take him out the back of Victoria Park and shoot him).
Damn Shaw and damn him for putting me in this morally compromising position! He broke the law, what he did was dangerous, and he should be dumped from the team. But goddamn it, I need him to play this week, particularly with Darren Milburn being suspended for four matches, and Graham Johncock last spotted somewhere in the oil fields of Alaska. Honestly, I hope they play him. Goddamn…
Wednesday:
Well, now we know… Heath Shaw out for the rest of the season. The good news though is Darren Milburn has had his suspension reduced to one week, although this also makes things decidedly tricky. Do I keep Milburn or go for broke and try and get the week’s rest in the finals? I think keep him, and here’s why: if I’m aiming to win my league then, because of the way the finals system works, I have to win the last two matches of the finals regardless of whether I win or lose this week. That being the case, it would be better to have Milburn for those last two weeks then not to have him. Not only is he one of the better defenders going around, I can use the trade elsewhere.
So how to use the trades? Well, one will have to be used to ditch Heath Shaw. Unfortunately, Shaw’s value has gone down recently so to get a top defender will probably eat up some cash. I’m also thinking if I want to take out some insurance against Milburn’s absence, I can upgrade Cyril Rioli for a star forward. I was going to do this at some point anyway, so why not this week? That will give me an all-star line-up when Milburn returns, and still leave me two trades to cover injuries.
I’m liking this plan, but we’ll have to see what the teams are tomorrow night.
Thursday:
All going to plan – Johncock’s back, Ablett’s back… I traded Heath Shaw for another underperforming star, Andrew McLeod, and dumped Cyril Rioli for the consistent Jarrad Waite. Once Milburn returns, my team should be unstoppable! The other finalists are not going to know what hit them! That is, assuming I win the first final this weekend…
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
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