The Most Dominant VFL/AFL Season Ever

Which team had the most dominant VFL/AFL season ever? One way to measure this might be to take the team with the best winning percentage (including finals).

Essendon	2000	96.00
Carlton	1908	95.00
Collingwood	1929	95.00
Essendon	1950	95.00
South Melbourne	1918	93.75
Geelong	2008	92.00
Carlton	1995	92.00
Melbourne	1956	90.00
Essendon	1962	90.00
Collingwood	1903	89.47

It seems like a pretty good list – most of the consensus dominant teams make an appearance, although no Hawthorn team from the ‘80s, or Brisbane Lions team from the 2000s gets on the list. But maybe some of those teams just beat up on bad teams all year? Another way to measure a team’s dominance is to work out how many standard deviations their winning percentage was above the average (the average is of course 50 per cent). That is, if the competition is relatively uneven, a high winning percentage still looks impressive, but slightly less so. Putting aside finals, that gives this table:

Essendon	2000	2.34
Geelong	2008	2.12
Carlton	1995	2.02
Hawthorn	1988	1.97
St. Kilda	2009	1.94
Melbourne	1958	1.93
Carlton	1908	1.91
Hawthorn	1989	1.85
Essendon	1950	1.85
Melbourne	1956	1.80

I like this list, but it has some weaknesses. The main one is this – in 1929, Collingwood won 100 per cent of their home and away games (they lost a final, hence why their overall winning percentage was 95 per cent), but cannot crack the top 10 in the adjusted winning percentage table. Granted, it looks like the competition was very uneven that year, but what more could the Magpies do? Another way to look at dominance then is to work out how many standard deviations their percentage (points scored divided by points conceded) was above the average. There is no limit to percentage, and I tend to argue that, while wins and losses are ultimately how a team’s ladder position is decided, a team’s percentage possibly gives a better indication of how ‘dominant’ they were. I am not going for raw percentage here, because that would just give a list of teams from the 1890s/1900s. The best teams in terms of adjusted percentage are as follows:

Geelong	2007	2.57
Essendon	2000	2.55
Geelong	2008	2.48
Brisbane	1999	2.47
Melbourne	1957	2.38
Carlton	1976	2.30
Hawthorn	1988	2.29
West Coast	1991	2.23
Collingwood	1929	2.13
Carlton	1908	2.12

There are a few ‘oddballs’ on this list, or are there … ? Perhaps the Brisbane Lions of 1999, which had a very good percentage in an even year, were really the ‘best’ team of the Lions’ ‘dynasty’ – they only won less game than the 2001 and 2002 teams, and likely would have won the premiership that year if not for losing the preliminary final against North Melbourne (assuming they played Carlton). Geelong in 2007 also appears to be more dominant than their winning percentage suggested – if a couple of close losses that year were reversed they would appear in the top list for winning percentage also.

But one team keeps appearing at or near the top – Essendon in 2000. The Bombers also more than doubled their opponents’ scores in the finals, a feat also achieved by Hawthorn in 1988, Carlton in 1908, and Geelong in 2007, but not significantly bettered. They may not have gone on to be dominant in subsequent years, but for me the conclusion looks clear – the Essendon 2000 squad had the most dominant VFL/AFL season ever.